Little Grey Rabbit's Historical Skepticism Blog

Temporary Post: Scenarios of CO2 effects on global warming

Posted in Miscellanous by littlegreyrabbit on June 23, 2011

With apologies on the interruption of service, but I have been asked to lend this blog for a few days to my good friend, Mr Lamb, for a temporary post:

In discussion with a Professor Enting recently, he said the following:

But, simpliying the numbers a bit, think of it as each time you multiply the concentration by 1.5, you add about 2 degrees to the medium term warming – the instantaneous warming lags and there may be more long term warming from ice sheet feedbacks.
so 180 to 270 adds 2 degrees, 270 to 405 adds another 2, 405 to 607 adds another 2.
If you have acess to a spreadshet like excel (or the open office equivalent) you can plot up a more detailed version yourself.

So I thought what-ho, I will do that.  The problem with Professor’s Enting’s model is it fitted no actual real life points.  He admits he can’t get it to go through zero or 1 ppm CO2, he uses a figure of 2 degrees warming for industrial age increase which he admits is 2.5 times that observed, then uses 2 degrees warming for the ice-age to pre-industrial age variation; which is also too high.  In fact that the only thing it has going for it is that it fits a 2 degree warming to around 600 ppm CO2 – which seems to represent a “6 million” figure for climate scientists; you can add up your numbers anyway you like, so longs as you reach an additional 2 degrees by 600 ppm.

So lets take Prof. Enting’s logarithmic relationship and put it on a proper scientific footing.  It is commonly stated that without greenhouse insulation the earth would be 33 degrees colder or 28 degrees colder than the temperature during minima of recent ice ages.  However, it is also understood that CO2 only represents a fraction of the greenhouse gases – the bulk of the warming being provided by water vapour. So I have prepared 3 different scenarios, a conservative scenario of CO providing 15% of the GH effect, a mid range where it provides 20 % of the GH effect and a “bend over backwards” scenario where it provides 25-30% of the GH effect

TABLE: Temperature rises for each scenario of CO2 levels in ppm – starting at 180 ppm of the Ice Age minimas.

Degrees above Ice Age minimums CO2 contributing 4 degrees at 180 ppm CO2 contributing 6 degrees at 180 ppm CO2 contributing 8 degrees at 180 ppm

0

180 180 180

0.25

249.016

223.4818

211.7141

0.5

344.4939

277.467

249.0159

0.75

476.5803

344.4939

292.89

1

659.3115

427.7118

344.4939

1.25

531.0323

405.1901

1.5

659.3115

476.5803

1.75

560.5487

2

659.3115

The number bolded is that closest to what is the pre-industrial point: Conservative scenario has CO2 contributing to around 0.3 of the observed warming from the Ice Ages, the mid range scenario around 0.55 degrees contribution and the “bend over backwards scenario” contributing 0.75 degrees.

Considering that orbital variation, axial wobble and albedo feed forward almost certainly contributes the bulk of warming since the ice ages, the conservative or mid range estimate should be about right.

To get to the canonical 650 ppm CO2, under the conservative model we should expect a further 0.7 degrees rise over pre-industrial, the mid-range model a 1.0 degree rise and the “bend-over-backwards” model a whooping 1.25 degree rise.

Note, this does not mean the temperature will rise by this, simply that will be the proportion of temperature rise that can be directly attributed to CO2, without including any negative feedbacks, positive feed-forwards, variations in cloud cover, solar variation or variations in solar magnetic flux.

In the final analysis since the nature of climate science is that it can-not be a experimental science, it is impossible verify their modelling.  This makes the field susceptible to group-think and manipulating assumptions to achieve political desirable outcomes.

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Correction Corner: Ian Bell of the Herald Scotland on Armenia, Hitler quotes and Churchill

Posted in Correction Corner, Miscellanous by littlegreyrabbit on March 17, 2011

I am firmly of the opinion that journalists, taken as a whole, are both honest and well-informed.  Alas, the ones that are honest are seldom well-informed and the ones that are well-informed are never honest.  A rarity is a journalist like Ian Bell of the Herald, who combines a lack or honesty with a surprising level of general ignorance.  Normally I would not bother correcting such a low profile individual, since there aren’t enough hours in the day to correct foolish statements by journalists, but Mr Bell managed to cram enough errors into this post and then refused to allow polite corrections to stand to make an exception in this case.

My interest was directed to Mr Bell and his journalism/blog by a slight interest I have in police corruption surrounding the Lockerbie investigation.  The Pan Am flight was allegedly brought down by explosives hidden in a radio cassette, using an MST-13 timer constructed in Switzlerland and sold to the Libyans, and wrapt in clothing purchased in Malta from the store of Tony Gauci.  Every one of these strands of evidence can be shown to have been deliberately fabricated by elements within the British investigation.  Tony Gauci made numerous errors in identification and his evidence was widely believed in Malta to have been that of a perjurer;  with the benefit of some 3 million dollars from the US Government the Gauci brothers have started a new life in Australia [1].  The manual of the radio cassette that supposedly contained the explosives, which was found intact by a Mrs Horton, was ripped and damaged in police custody to appear like it had been through an explosion:

Zeist Court Transcripts

“Q Right. I wonder if you would look, please, at Label 24. You’ll see there is a bag which contains items there. Do you recognise anything?

A Well, not in its present state. I’m sure when I handed it in, it was in one piece.

The MST-13 timer itself was stated by the manufacturers, MEBO telecommunications, to be a falsification and not a genuine, functioning timer.  In 2007, former employee Ulrich Lumpert, stated in an affidavit that he had given false testimony at Zeist and that in fact he had stolen a prototype MST-13 circuit board and given it to an “investigating official”. [2] In short, the entire “forensics” of the Lockerbie case was a conscious and deliberate fabrication from start to finish.  That the MST-13 timer, wrapt in Tony Gauci’s clothing, was only found many weeks after the downing of the plane also points to investigator misconduct [officially it was found on 13 January 1989, although the first documented reference to it dates from May 1989].  Mebo directors also claimed that, like the Gauci brothers, they had been offered 4 million dollars to give false testimony.

There is further evidence to support the falsificaton and planting of the MST-13, for example this affidavit:

A former Scottish police chief has given lawyers a signed statement claiming that key evidence in the Lockerbie bombing trial was fabricated.

The retired officer – of assistant chief constable rank or higher – has testified that the CIA planted the tiny fragment of circuit board crucial in convicting a Libyan for the 1989 mass murder of 270 people.

The police chief, whose identity has not yet been revealed, gave the statement to lawyers representing Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed Al Megrahi, currently serving a life sentence in Greenock Prison.[3]

While I would have no theory of what did in fact bring down the Pan Am flight, it is worth noting that a few seconds before the explosion an unexplained radar signal turned up in close proximity to the aircraft.  As the Air Accidents Investigation Report described it:

Recorded radar information on the aircraft was available from from [sic] 4 radar sites. Initial analysis consisted of viewing the recorded information as it was shown to the controller on the radar screen, from this it was clear that the flight had progressed in a normal manner until Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR) was lost. There was a single primary return received by both Great Dun Fell and Claxby radars approximately 16 seconds before SSR returns were lost. The Lowther Hill and St Annes radars did not see this return. The Great Dun Fell radar recording was watched for 1 hour both before and after this single return  for any signes of other spurious [sic!!!!] returns, but none was seen. The return was only present for one paint [sic] and no other explanation can be offered for its presence [Appendix page C-11]

Lockerbie Air Accident Investigation: Anomalous Radar Return

I have always been amazed at the rapidity which which the plane is supposed to have disintegrated.  As for the radar return, my only suggestion is that it was probably Al-Megrahi on his broomstick chasing the Pan Am flight, waving the samsonite suitcase and crying “You forgot this!”

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Holocaust blinkers or Himmler the budding cancer epidemiologist

Posted in Experiments, Miscellanous by littlegreyrabbit on February 6, 2011

Nothing can better illustrate the stultifying dead hand of Holocaust pieties than a paper published in late 2009 looking at differing cancer rates between European heritage Jews who emigrated before WW2 and those who emigrate after.  The complete journal article is here or there is a news article in Haaretz.

Cancer rates were compared between two groups of European born Israeli Jews: 258,048 who left Europe after the war and 57,496 who emigrated before or during the conflict.  Both groups have higher cancer rates than other Jewish (eg Sephardic) or non-Jewish (eg. Arab) ethnic groups.  The study concludes there is a 17% higher rate of cancer amongst those emigrating after WW2 and suggests malnutrition or “the traumas of the Holocaust” are responsible, the reported difference being strongest in the 1940-1945 group.

Sensibly the study excluded those who had emigrated after 1989 and so avoided the contaminating influence of the large influx from the Soviet Union.  One surprising fact about the demographics is there is not the dip in numbers of those born between 1940 and 1945 (highlighted in red) that I always assumed there would be.

Group Nonexposed group, No. (%) Exposed group, No. (%)
Men Women Men Women
Total 444 484 (100.0) 463 952 (100.0) 1 804 978 (100.0) 2 206 286 (100.0)
Birth cohort
1920–1924 158 052 (35.6) 161 125 (34.7) 397 834 (22.0) 519 343 (23.5)
1925–1929 127 525 (28.7) 132 929 (28.7) 342 575 (19.0) 492 743 (22.3)
1930–1934 102 040 (22.9) 112 007 (24.1) 326 174 (18.1) 387 166 (17.6)
1935–1939 39 129 (8.8) 40 244 (8.7) 338 512 (18.8) 377 733 (17.1)
1940–1945 17 738 (4.0) 17 647 (3.8) 399 883 (22.1) 429 301 (19.5)

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Correction Corner: Bodies NOT seen by American journalists at Babi Yar

Posted in Correction Corner, Einsatzgruppen, Police etc, Miscellanous by littlegreyrabbit on February 1, 2011

The bizarre assertion that bodies were seen by American journalists at Babi Yar is made by a group of somewhat erratic bloggers can be read here.  The post begins with the perfectly reasonable observation that American journalists did see some dead bodies in a rather frightful Soviet exhibition at Klooga, Estonia.  But then tries to claim by pointing to an archived news report from 1943, that American journalists also saw dead bodies at Babi Yar.  In order to disprove this I will reproduce the entire article that they point to below (in fairness a journalist did say he saw some fingers).  In contrast to the claims of the Holocaust Controversies blogging team, the scepticism of William Lawrence regarding a massacre at Babi Yar during his visit is an established fact: “[William] Lawrence had been sceptical that a massacre had taken place at Babi Yar.  Years later, he said his doubts evaporated when he arrived at the camp near Lublin [Majdanek, 30 August 1944], Lublin” [1].

Why this scepticism might exist can be easily understood when viewing the photographic materials produced by the Soviet Special Commission of 1943.  I reproduce a few of these photos and the rest can be viewed offsite here.  I should add I have quite a bit of material regarding Babi Yar, problems with its documentation and twisted path of its genesis, but I won’t be presenting it at this stage – although as always the case, there is certain to have been some level of executions at various points during the occupation.

 

Soviet Special Commission 1943 - pyre and dugout.

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Jedwabne: A fraudulent exhumation

Posted in Essential Postings, Miscellanous by littlegreyrabbit on April 30, 2010

The story of Jedwabne is well enough not known not to need to be extensively retold here.  It re-emerged into the public sphere after the publication of Neighbours by Jan Gross, chronicling how spontaneously the townsfolk of Jedwabne immediately upon German invasion in 1941 rounded up their Jewish neighbors, drove them into a barn and set it on fire. (more…)

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Correction Corner: David Cesarani on Adolf Eichmann

Posted in Correction Corner, Miscellanous by littlegreyrabbit on March 16, 2010

David Cesarani, who wrote a very readable biography on Arthur Koestler, has also written a slightly less favorable treatment of Adolf Eichmann. He provides one of the most extraordinary, albeit not of major importance, misinterpretations of a historical document I have ever seen. David Cesarani gives an anecdote illustrating Eichmann’s early, extreme antisemitism. (more…)

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